Target missed again: London’s sustainable travel share stalls
The number of people walking, cycling or using public transport looks to be unchanged in 2024 - story 88
This is disappointing.
Despite lofty ambitions to reshape how Londoners move around the capital, new data suggests the city’s transport habits have barely shifted in the last year.
Transport for London (TfL) has released provisional figures showing that just 63.7 percent of trips in 2024 were made by walking, cycling, or public transport — a marginal uptick from 2023. The figure matters because it is the primary metric by which the Mayor’s Transport Strategy, published in 2018, gauges success.
That strategy, championed by Mayor Sadiq Khan, set a long-term goal: raise the share of sustainable travel from 63 percent to 80 percent by 2041.
Seven years in, and the needle has barely moved. Again.
More problems ahead?
The 2024 mode share was included a TfL board report, released ahead of its 11 June meeting. TfL stress this is a provisional number and will likely be revised as further data is available through 2025.
The board report includes a useful chart which highlights a second problem. Look at the core forecast dots on the chart below.
TfL board report explains the core forecast assumes only the initiatives approved and funded over the period to 2030.
The Forecast contains a portfolio of investment limited to only those schemes that are funded and committed.
The Core Forecast includes a level of working from home, online shopping and other trip rates consistent with today and London’s population reaching 10 million by 2041.
Notes & thoughts
Sir Sadiq Khan has been re-elected twice since publishing his Transport Strategy. Central to his Mayoralty has been this push to reduce the number of journies in London by private car.
Most of the changes driven by the Strategy - such as ULEZ, Congestion Charging - now enjoy widespread support despite being controversial when implemented.
The Strategy is not delivering significant change quickly enough. There need to be more iniatiatives that encourage Londoners to walk, cycle and public transport.
Committing to a Hammersmith Bridge that is only for walkers and wheelers is one such initiative.